Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
• Russian forces continued to press on multiple fronts, while Ukraine finally received its first F-16 fighter aircraft.
• Ukraine reportedly sunk the Rostov-on-Don, a Russian Improved Kilo–class submarine, in the port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
• Ukraine attacked a critical Russian airbase with loitering munitions, again showcasing its deep-strike capabilities.
• Russia reportedly received anti-tank missile vehicles from North Korea and continues to devise new anti-drone technologies.
1. Battlefield Assessment
The military situation in Ukraine remains tense, and two flashpoints merit particular attention. In the direction of Pokrovsk, the Russian offensive has intensified, and Ukraine’s lines of defense may break if Moscow sustains its highly attritional operational tempo. In Kharkiv, the Russian military has been sending in reinforcements, tilting the balance of power toward the Kremlin. According to recent reports from United Kingdom Defence Intelligence, July saw a decrease over the two prior months in the number of Russian servicemen killed in action. This downward trend might indicate that Russia has been consolidating its positions to increase pressure on the front lines.
Moscow continued its push on multiple other fronts as well. Vovchansk and Tykhe were critical hotspots for Russia’s ongoing offensive on Kharkiv. In the direction of Kupiansk, Russian forces pushed for Stelmakhivka, though they made no confirmed territorial gains. Elsewhere, the Kremlin’s heavy pressure yielded marginal gains on some fronts, including near Siversk, Vesele, and Chasiv Yar.
Notably, combat formations from pro-Russian, separatist regions of the Ukrainian oblast of Luhansk participated in offensive action near Siversk, while in southern Ukraine, Russian forces maintained pressure on multiple targets, including Robotyne. Ukraine’s position near Pokrovsk also continued to deteriorate, with some reports indicating that Russia’s rapid advance there has led to a partial collapse in Ukraine’s lines of defense.
Evidence suggests that Moscow is considering deploying additional troops to the Pokrovsk region by transferring all available reserves in occupied areas. The Kremlin also reportedly has devoted some of its best troops, including units from the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), to breaking bottlenecks on critical fronts.
Open-source evidence suggests that Russia is considering deploying additional forces in several places, most notably on the Kharkiv front. Assessments indicate that Moscow continues to complement its ground offensive with aerial strikes.
Last week, Kyiv continued long-range strikes on critical Russian airfields, oil infrastructure, and other military and strategic facilities. Attempting to curtail Russia’s aerial attacks, Ukraine reportedly struck an aviation ammunition depot and a base of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Kursk. In another incident, Ukrainian forces conducted a kamikaze drone attack that caused multiple fires on the Morozovsk air base, an airfield that hosts Su-34 fighter-bombers and Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets, platforms that play an active role in Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. An assessment of open-source imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces damaged the facility.
Moreover, Ukraine hit and reportedly sank a Russian Improved Kilo–class submarine, the Rostov-on-Don, in the port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian military had previously used Storm Shadow missiles to hit the Kalibr-capable attack submarine, from which Moscow has launched cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
A Forbes analysis also revealed that Ukraine launched almost 100 more attack drones in July than Russia, deploying 520 drones to Moscow’s 426. This helps illustrate why the West should lift restrictions on the long-range weapons it has been transferring to Kyiv, as the Russian rear remains vulnerable to the Ukrainian military’s deep strikes.
Finally, the first deliveries of F-16 combat aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force are promising news for Kyiv. Official sources suggest that the first batch of the long-awaited F-16s are finally flying in Ukrainian skies. With timely military assistance and operational support, the aircraft will provide a needed boost to Kyiv.
Nonetheless, the F-16, a textbook fourth-generation tactical military aviation platform, has a limited ceiling. It does not possess stealth features or fifth-generation sensor fusion, which makes it vulnerable to Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and fighter aircraft. Thus, while the F-16s herald Ukraine’s transition to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) aviation systems, they do not solve all of Kyiv’s problems.
2. Russia Is Receiving Anti-tank Missile Vehicles from North Korea
Russia and North Korea’s recent signing of a defense pact and subsequent staging of high-level bilateral meetings are starting to bear fruit for Moscow, as open-source intelligence suggests that Pyongyang recently sent Bulsae-4 anti-tank missile vehicles to bolster Russia’s war effort.
Visual evidence from the battlefield indicates that the North Korean tank destroyer was first spotted in Russia across the border from the Ukrainian city of Vovchansk, but has not yet been combat deployed in Ukraine. The Bulsae-4 is a non-line-of-sight (NLOS) missile vehicle, a platform that can strike targets without a direct line of sight. The vehicle features eight rotating missile containers mounted on the chassis of the North Korean M-2010 wheeled armored personnel carrier, which is derived from the Soviet BTR-80.
Because of scant evidence, Ukrainian officials have remained cautious about declaring whether the vehicle is yet in the Kremlin’s possession. If confirmed, the transfer would suggest that Russian combat formations may possess other heavy armor from Pyongyang. Thus far, North Korea has provided Russia with 152mm-class artillery shells and 122mm-class rockets, along with tactical ballistic missiles similar to the Russian SS-26 Iskander. At a time of high-tempo combat operations, North Korea remains a crucial supplier of Russia’s armed forces.
3. In an Increasingly Digitalized War, Both Belligerents Mine Emerging Technologies
For many months, Russian electronic warfare activity, including extensive jamming and suppression of the Global Positioning System (GPS), has vexed Ukraine and troubled commercial air operations along NATO’s eastern edge. Now, Kyiv is responding by amping up its cyber and electronic warfare efforts. In July, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reportedly conducted a large-scale, nationwide cyberattack against Russia’s financial institutions and critical national infrastructure.
On the Russian side, new Kremlin Defense Minister Andrey Belousov’s technology-focused approach has pushed Russian arms manufacturers to scale up their robotic warfare and drone production efforts. Recent reporting in the Russian state-owned news agency RIA claimed that Moscow can produce around 4,000 first-person-view (FPV) drones per day. This would provide Russia with approximately 1.4 million drones per year, around half of Ukraine’s reported production of around 3 million FPV drones, although Kyiv’s numbers depend on Western support.
More worrisome than the volume of Russia’s drone production is the quality of its munitions. The Kremlin’s defense technological and industrial base is now devising dangerous solutions explicitly for anti-drone warfare, many of which are targeted at Ukraine’s Baba Yaga night-bomber hexacopter drones. Russia’s achievements in drone-on-drone warfare threaten not only Ukraine but could, in a broader future conflict, pose problems for NATO.