On Sunday, October 27, Japan held its first general election in nearly three years.
Facing numerous scandals and general unpopularity, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the Komeito, lost their majority in Japan’s lower house, the House of Representatives. The coalition’s loss brings a level of uncertainty that Tokyo has not seen since the Democratic Party of Japan took the majority from the LDP in 2009.
In Japan, laws and resolutions generally require a simple majority to pass. But now no single political party has the numbers to pass a law or resolution by itself. Thus, lawmakers will be forced to fight more political battles and engage in more coalition-building in the coming years.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s future in office is also uncertain. Ishiba has said that he will not resign in the immediate aftermath of his party’s loss. But he could resign later, or the lower house could remove him from office.
General Election Results
Japan’s lower house has 465 total seats, including 289 single-seat constituencies and 176 proportional representatives. So Japanese citizens cast two ballots when they vote in a general election: one for their single-seat representative and one for a political party or organization. The winning political parties or organizations then choose their proportional representatives.
Parties hope to win at least 233, or half, of the available 465 seats. In the 2021 general election, the LDP took 259 seats. In Sunday’s election, the LDP won only 191 seats, including 132 single-seat constituencies and 59 proportional seats. The Komeito won 24 seats, bringing the LDP/Komeito coalition to just 215 total.
As for the opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 total seats—104 single-seat constituencies and 44 proportional slots—making it the second-largest party.Other notable factions include the Ishin party with 38 seats, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) with 28 seats, the Reiwa party with 9 seats, and the Japanese Communist Party with 8 seats. New parties and independents won a combined 19 seats.
Difference from 2009
The LDP has been in power continuously since 1955, except for brief periods from 1993–94 and 2009–12. This has made Japanese governance remarkably stable throughout its modern history.
Between 2009 and 2012, the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan controlled the lower house and formed a government after winning 308 seats. The LDP won 119 seats and the Komeito 21 seats, for a combined 140.
But this time the LDP coalition is just 18 votes shy of a majority. Ishin and the DPFP each hold enough seats to bridge this gap, and the LDP has the option of working with independents. Therefore, an LDP-centric coalition may still exercise control in this government. In the opposition, the CDP will have its own troubles with building a coalition. It will need the help of nearly all other major parties to outvote the LDP and its partners.
What’s Next for the US-Japan Relationship
How the LDP coalition’s loss of the majority will affect the United States–Japan relationship will also depend heavily on the results of the upcoming US presidential election. But there are stark differences between the most recent Japanese election and the LDP’s last loss in 2009, which temporarily saw US-Japan relations destabilize.
No election result is likely to threaten the strong diplomatic foundations of the US-Japan alliance. But political uncertainty in either country may impede progress on issues like defense spending or constitutional reforms that are vital to cooperation between Washington and Tokyo.
There are several possibilities for how Japanese politics may move forward.
First, the LDP coalition could reach out to non-coalition parties or independent lawmakers to regain the majority in the House of Representatives. Ishiba has reached out to the DPFP, as its platform may be the closest to the LDP’s on issues like the economy and defense, but the DPFP is unlikely to accept his offer. Second, lawmakers could form partial coalitions around specific measures like budget resolutions, fiscal policies, or economic reforms. Finally, the LDP coalition could continue on its losing path. The CDP could win a majority and oust the LDP government in Japan’s next major race, the July 2025 election for Japan’s upper house, the House of Councilors.
While no party is against the US-Japan alliance, a CDP-led government may complicate relations due to sensitive issues like US forces in Okinawa, defense reforms in Japan, and defense spending.
The first few months under this divided government will offer important insights to the future of Japanese politics.