Current federal commitments to health care are on a course to consume an ever larger share of the budget. New subsidies bring two forms of risk to the federal budget which could either exacerbate or moderate this trend. First, there is the financial risk that can be anticipated at the time health care reform happens. Second, there is the risk that things will turn out differently than expected.

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Gunners from the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire at Russian position with a 155 mm self-propelled howitzer 2C22 in the Kharkiv region on April 21, 2024. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)