US House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Michael McCaul, a Republican, released a scathing report last week blaming Joe Biden for the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. McCaul’s Democratic counterpart on the committee, Gregory Meeks, dismissed the report as a “partisan narrative.”
It was the latest example of the political blame game over the 20-year US involvement in Afghanistan. And there’s plenty of blame to go around: while the chaotic withdrawal happened on Biden’s watch, the groundwork was laid during the Trump administration.
Trump, during his 2016 campaign, promised to end the so-called “forever wars,” with Afghanistan the prime example. By then the conflict had dragged on for 15 years, but it looked very different from the earlier, bloodier years. US troop levels had peaked at over 100,000 during the height of the fighting in 2010–2012, when hundreds of American soldiers were killed every year and the US was spending about $120 billion a year on the war — $300 million a day, $230,000 every minute.
But by the time Trump took office in 2017, this had evolved significantly. The war he wanted to end was not the one the US was then fighting. Casualties had decreased and troop levels were down to about 18,000, mainly trainers for Afghan security forces and counterterrorism operators. The cost had also dropped to about $18 billion a year. Nevertheless, Trump remained focused on his populist message of ending “forever wars,” which resonated with a significant portion of Americans.
In 2019, his administration initiated direct talks with the Taliban, culminating in a 2020 agreement negotiated without the involvement of the Afghan government that set a timeline for a phased withdrawal of US forces by May 2021. The agreement also included the release of over 5,000 Taliban prisoners in exchange for vague assurances from the Taliban that they would prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for transnational terrorist groups. This set the stage for one of the most consequential foreign policy decisions of the past decade.
When Biden took office in January 2021, only 2,500 US troops remained in Afghanistan. While small in number, they were a stabilizing force. Few believed that 2,500 troops were enough to enable the Afghan government to regain full control, but they were enough to prevent the Taliban from doing so.
Biden repeatedly claimed that his hands were tied by Trump’s deal, but that was not true. He had no problem reversing many of Trump’s other policies, and there was no legal or strategic imperative that forced him to stick to Trump’s withdrawal timeline. The truth is, Biden, who had long been skeptical of the US mission in Afghanistan, saw an opportunity to end America’s involvement once and for all, and he seized it — without fully considering the consequences.
In 2009, during Barack Obama’s Afghan strategy review, Biden, then vice president, had argued for a limited US military presence focused on counterterrorism. His position was opposed by influential figures such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and CIA Director Leon Panetta, who advocated a surge in US forces based on Gen. David Petraeus’s successful strategy in Iraq. Biden lost that debate. Ironically, by 2021, the US presence in Afghanistan had come to resemble what Biden had advocated in 2009: he essentially inherited his own strategy. But instead of maintaining it, he chose to exit.
He pushed the withdrawal deadline from May to September, and by July US forces had abandoned Bagram air base without notifying their Afghan counterparts. Shortly after, the Taliban began capturing provincial capitals, and Kabul fell within weeks.
It is hard to argue that today’s Afghanistan, ruled by the Taliban, is preferable to maintaining a small contingent of US troops and contractors, especially given the low cost and minimal risk. It is an option Biden could have chosen, but he didn’t.
Trump now has the advantage that no one will ever know what he would have done with a second term. Would he have stuck to his timeline or made adjustments? It’s impossible to say. What we do know is that by the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, the Taliban controlled more territory in Afghanistan than they did on that tragic day in 2001. While Trump’s decision to negotiate with them was reckless, Biden bears responsibility for the disastrous final act.
The consequences of this debacle extend far beyond Afghanistan. America’s adversaries, sensing weakness and indecision, have been emboldened. Months after the fall of Kabul, Russia invaded Ukraine. China is increasingly bellicose over Taiwan. Meanwhile America’s allies are left questioning the reliability of their most important partner.
But the people who have suffered the most are the Afghans. While American politicians engage in finger pointing, millions of Afghans are now living under a repressive regime, facing economic collapse and a worsening humanitarian crisis. No US leader has yet offered a solution, and the lack of accountability is a sad reflection of the state of American foreign policy today.
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