Regrettably, I don’t see many positive outcomes for Ukraine after November, whether under a Trump or Harris administration. Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he could quickly end the conflict but has yet to offer even a basic outline of how he would achieve this. The worst-case scenario for Ukraine under a Trump administration would be a cessation of U.S. military and economic support, forcing the Ukrainians to unwillingly cede territory to Russia in exchange for a dubious ceasefire agreement. Given Russia’s track record of dishonoring such agreements, it is highly likely that after a period of relative calm, the Kremlin would resume its aggression, leaving Ukraine in an even more precarious position.
A Harris administration, meanwhile, would likely continue the same indecisive “muddle along” approach pursued by the Biden White House. While President Joe Biden deserves credit for arming Ukraine early, his major decisions on critical weapons systems since then—such as Patriot missiles, HIMARS, Abrams tanks, and F-16s— have all come months too late to make the necessary impact on the battlefield. My concern is that a Harris administration would continue this policy of arming Ukraine to survive, but not to win—prolonging not only the war but also the suffering.
Neither Trump nor Harris seems to fully grasp the historical significance of this moment. The 2024 Republican platform does not mention Ukraine once. The Democratic platform devotes one sentence to Ukraine out of 92 pages. It blandly states: “We will maintain transatlantic support for Ukraine’s reform efforts and its territorial integrity.” This is hardly the inspiring stuff that will shape world events.
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will define the security of Europe—which one should remember is America’s largest export market and source of foreign direct investment—for a generation. If either candidate understands this, they have not shown it on the campaign trail. Trump knows supporting Ukraine is unpopular with his base, and Harris has shown no inclination to deviate from Biden’s minimalistic approach. Unfortunately, looking at it objectively, the next four years look bleak for Ukraine.
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