Why Ukraine Matters to the United States
Below are five reasons why Ukraine is important to US interests.
1. Protecting the US economy. North America and Europe account for nearly half of the world’s GDP. Two-thirds of foreign investment into the US comes from Europe, and 48 states export more to Europe than to China. This supports millions of American jobs. European stability, which Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine undermines, benefits the US economy and, by extension, the American worker. Aiding Ukraine helps preserve that stability.
2. Detering Chinese aggression. Russia is China’s junior partner. A weakened or defeated Russia means a weaker China. Beijing is watching how the West supports Ukraine. A strong and victorious Ukraine makes Taiwan appear stronger and deters Chinese aggression.
3. Succeeding in great power competition. Russia’s war against Ukraine is central to America’s great power competition against the Russia–China–Iran–North Korea axis. North Korea has provided 10,000 soldiers, millions of artillery shells, and hundreds of missiles to Russia in exchange for military technology. Meanwhile, Iran provides Russia with drones and ballistic missiles in exchange for fighter jets and other advanced capabilities. China’s technical, economic, and diplomatic support for Russia enables all this as part of Beijing’s strategy to undermine the US.
4. Preparing the US military enterprise for twenty-first-century warfare. Support for Ukraine has exposed major shortcomings in the US defense industrial base that can now be fixed. The war has also tested American-made military hardware in a way not possible in peacetime—with no American casualties. The US is learning what works, what does not work, and how systems evolve in combat. And as Ukraine receives US weapons, America replaces its own weapons stocks with newer, more effective systems.
5. Demonstrating strength. A successful Ukraine demonstrates American strength. However, acquiescing to Putin and abandoning partners shows the world American weakness. Even forcing Ukraine into a deal that lopsidedly benefits Russia would embolden US adversaries and cause America’s allies to hedge toward other security arrangements.
What President Trump Needs to Do
President-elect Donald Trump is sincere in his desire to end the war, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized that he wants a “fair” end to the war. But the end needs to be just and honorable. The incoming Trump administration needs to change course from the Biden administration’s approach so Ukraine can enter any negotiations from a position of strength. Below are seven steps to do so.
1. Take meaningful steps to close sanctions loopholes. Russia diverts much of its trade through a network of partners to skirt Western sanctions. The US and its allies need to crack down on sanctions evasion to truly cripple the Russian economy.
2. Encourage European partners to establish an air defense mission in Poland and Romania. Russian missiles and drones routinely violate NATO airspace. Alliance members should use Polish and Romanian territory to intercept missiles or drones headed toward a NATO member, even in western Ukrainian airspace. This is a reasonable act of self-defense with a low risk of escalation because neither US nor NATO forces will be in direct confrontation with Russian troops. The mission would protect major Ukrainian population centers such as Lviv, allowing Kyiv to reposition scarce air defense systems closer to the front line.
3. Promote a pro-America energy policy. Congress and the executive branch should revoke all restrictions on liquefied natural gas exports. President Trump’s policies to unshackle US oil and gas production and his administration’s relationships with Gulf states could give the president powerful leverage on global energy prices. This would weaken one of Russia’s remaining economic lifelines.
4. Develop a strategy to boost Ukraine’s defense sector and integrate it with America’s. Ukraine’s defense sector has a highly skilled, innovative, and educated workforce. Before Russia’s 2014 invasion, Ukraine was among the top 10 global defense exporters. Even as it fights, Ukraine has debuted groundbreaking weapons systems, especially in the unmanned category. Bolstering Ukraine’s domestic defense industry is one of the best long-term guarantees of the country’s security.
5. Think boldly and creatively about weapons. The next administration should break President Joe Biden’s predictable cycle and show strength in the weapons it sends to Ukraine. So it should continue providing Kyiv with more of the weapons it has already used successfully, and consider arming Ukraine with longer-range weapons such as the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile Block III and Standoff Land Attack Missile-Expanded Response (SLAM-ER).
6. Remove all restrictions on the use of American-provided weapons and encourage European partners to do the same. By adhering to Russia’s dubious red lines, Washington allows Moscow to dictate the conflict’s terms. If the Kremlin’s forces strike Ukraine from Russian territory, the US should show strength and allow Kyiv to use any weapons system against any legitimate military target, even those inside Russia.
7. Urge Congress to (a) pass another Ukraine supplemental during the lame-duck session and (b) legislate for the seizure of frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine aid. Both actions would strengthen President Trump’s hand when he takes office in January.