This monthly report by Hudson’s Zineb Riboua explores President Xi Jinping’s strategic push to broaden the People’s Republic of China’s influence across the Middle East and Africa. Click here to subscribe.
Saudi Arabia Threatens China’s Congo Stranglehold
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), home to 80 percent of the world’s known cobalt reserves, is taking steps to loosen China’s grip on its mining sector, Congolese senior official Marcellin Paluku announced. PRC-owned companies currently control the majority of the Congo’s cobalt output and refine it in China before supplying the world’s battery makers. But Kinshasa is turning to Saudi investors to diversify its partnerships and break Beijing’s dominance over the DRC’s mineral wealth.
Saudi Arabia, armed with the immense capital of its Public Investment Fund and driven by its Vision 2030 strategy to pivot beyond oil, is uniquely positioned to challenge China in the cobalt supply chain. Unlike Beijing, Riyadh does not have a reputation for extractive economic practices or cutting corners. This makes Saudi Arabia an attractive partner for the DRC as the embattled African nation looks to reduce its dependence on China.
Paluku’s announcement follows the arrest of three Chinese nationals who were caught in eastern Congo with several gold bars and hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash stashed under their car seats. South Kivu Governor Jean Jacques Purusi revealed that Congolese law enforcement kept the operation secret after other Chinese nationals accused of running illegal gold mines were unexpectedly released and allowed to return to China.
Why it matters
China’s extensive investments in the DRC and strategic infrastructure projects in neighboring Tanzania and Zambia are crucial to Beijing’s dominance over the cobalt supply chain. But Chinese firms’ shady and often illegal business practices have fostered discontent in the Congolese government and opened the door for new players.
With cracks forming in China’s cobalt empire, the United States has an opportunity to reshape the global resource landscape. By partnering with Saudi Arabia in the Congo, Washington can promote competition, champion ethical mining practices, and chip away at China’s near monopoly on critical minerals.
Eurasian Reroute: Ankara and Beijing Could Outflank Russian Railways
A Turkish official revealed that China is interested in contributing around $60 billion to upgrade Turkey’s rail network—an investment that could provide European freight companies an alternative to routes through Russia. This development is particularly striking given that Russia and China have grown closer in recent years as Beijing backs Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine through increased energy and technological trade.
The proposed upgrades, from railway electrification to the creation of a high-speed line connecting Istanbul and Ankara, signal Turkey’s ambitions to become a transit hub between Europe and Asia. But the real twist is China’s involvement: by backing Turkey’s plans, Beijing would help Ankara undercut Moscow’s freight dominance.
Why it matters
In what seems like a geopolitical backstabbing, China may quietly reroute trade from its so-called no-limits partner, Russia, to benefit from Turkey’s strategic location.
This development weakens Russia’s economic leverage over Europe, aiding US efforts to isolate Moscow. But it also highlights China’s growing influence in critical infrastructure projects in Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This deepens Beijing’s strategic foothold in Europe.
Turkey’s balancing act between the US, European NATO, and China underscores a shifting geopolitical landscape where middle powers exploit great power competition. Washington needs to counter China’s expanding global reach while maintaining cohesion within these alliances.
The US should offer Turkey alternative infrastructure investments and joint projects to compete with Beijing. Supporting European freight routes like the Three Seas Initiative can help America’s continental allies bypass China and Russia altogether.
Washington also needs to address Ankara’s security and trade concerns to ensure Turkey’s ambitions align with NATO and Western interests. Meanwhile, the US should emphasize the risks of China’s debt-trap diplomacy and promote transparent connectivity initiatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). Finally, American policymakers and diplomats should monitor fractures in the China-Russia relationship and amplify rifts to turn quiet tensions into loud divisions.
Beijing Arms the Houthis, Causing Trouble for the World
American intelligence sources revealed to i24NEWS that Beijing supplies the Iran-backed Houthis with sophisticated weaponry to help the terror group destabilize one of the world’s most critical maritime routes. The Houthis, known for chanting “death to America,” allegedly receive these weapons in exchange for Chinese ships’ safe passage in the Red Sea.
Why it matters
China’s support for the Houthis does not just bolster the group’s capacity to destabilize the region. It also threatens global trade routes and emboldens anti-American actors to challenge US influence. China’s support is particularly important because Israeli strikes, the collapse of Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime have weakened the Houthis’ primary backer, Iran.
China has cultivated its ties with the Houthis and other anti-Western groups by presenting itself as a champion of the Global South, forging strategic ties through economic and military support to challenge US dominance. To counter China-Houthi collaboration, the US should enhance its security cooperation with regional partners like Saudi Arabia and Israel to safeguard trade routes, disrupt Houthi supply chains with targeted sanctions, and increase diplomatic pressure on Beijing.
China Squeezes a Crumbling Iran
In a scramble to prop up its faltering militia network, Iran transferred nearly 3 million barrels of oil from a Chinese storage site onto tankers to be sold. The Wall Street Journal reports that this oil could be worth around $2 billion, but that Tehran will owe Beijing around $1 billion in storage fees. This underscores Tehran’s increasing dependence on Beijing as the Iranian economy crumbles under crippling sanctions and a string of regional defeats. Iran’s roar of defiance against the West has faded into a whisper of deference to Beijing.
China and Iran’s relationship became a 25-year “strategic partnership” in 2021. But this partnership increasingly looks more like a lifeline with strings attached. Beijing is tightening its grip, leveraging economic and political influence to control Iran’s resources and decision-making. The Iranians’ choice to move the 3 million barrels of oil echoes a 2018 shipment they made to evade Trump-era sanctions. Both examples paint a clear picture: China is not merely propping up Tehran—Beijing is exploiting the regime’s fragility to further Chinese interests.
Why it matters
The mercantilist Chinese government sees Iran’s desperation as an opportunity to solidify its role as a power broker in the Middle East. By offering Iran a financial lifeline and alternative markets, China allows Iran to sidestep Western sanctions and sustain its regime.
Through opaque oil deals and strategic investments, Beijing has become both Tehran’s benefactor and gatekeeper. China undermines US efforts to curb Iran’s destabilizing activities to reshape regional power dynamics in its favor.
To counter this, the US should close sanctions loopholes by targeting Chinese entities involved in facilitating Iran’s oil trade and financial flows. Washington should also bolster economic and security ties with its Middle Eastern allies to present a clear alternative to Chinese influence and reinforce its commitment to maintaining stability in the region.
Building Bridges: Pakistan Becomes China’s Shortcut to the Gulf
The Gulf’s abundant energy and status as a trade hub are critical to Beijing’s growing global ambitions. Pakistan, the crown jewel of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offers PRC firms a direct route to the Arabian Sea and Gulf markets—which could be China’s shortcut to securing influence in the Middle East while sidestepping chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca.
To capitalize on China’s ambitions, Pakistan’s National Logistics Corporation (NLC) launched its first operation through the Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) procedure, which alleviates duty and tax burdens for certain goods provided that their transit includes roads. The NLC’s new route links China to the United Arab Emirates via the Khunjerab Pass. Hailed as a “good omen” for Pakistan’s trade and logistics sectors, the move streamlines regional connectivity, paving the way to deepen China’s economic foothold in the Gulf.
The pass has evolved from a bilateral trade route into a key link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The NLC called the route “a major leap forward” as the shortest, most efficient route from China to the Gulf, cementing Pakistan’s role as a vital bridge for Beijing.
Why it matters
China is using Pakistan as a bridge to the Gulf while making Islamabad more dependent on Beijing. The US should recognize this as a wake-up call about China’s growing influence, strengthen its own partnerships in the region, and offer Pakistan an alternative to Beijing’s debt-laden projects.
The timing is no coincidence. China is capitalizing on the West’s distractedness to cement its foothold in the Middle East. The UAE, a key US ally and strategic partner, is now squarely in Beijing’s sights. This new trade artery is a fast lane from China to America’s Gulf partners. In a region where Washington once called the shots, Beijing is rapidly gaining ground.