Below, Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers an overview of the contemporary Middle Eastern strategic agenda.
Executive Summary
- Iran sought to acquire Chinese satellite technologies. These systems would boost Tehran’s sensor network and make its drone and missile warfare capabilities even more lethal.
- The Iran-backed Houthi militia continued attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea, damaging the global shipping industry and threatening an environmental catastrophe.
- Tehran displayed two significant weapons systems at a defense exhibition in Russia.
- Israel and Hezbollah exchanged long-range strikes amid carefully managed escalation.
1. Iran and China Boost Cooperation on Strategic Satellite Systems
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been pursuing the acquisition of Chinese satellite technologies, collaborating with the Chang Guang Satellite Technology Company (CGSTC) and MinoSpace, two China-based firms that manufacture high-resolution satellites and related space solutions.
MinoSpace specializes in the manufacture of microsatellites and nanosatellites, electronic communications technologies, optical payloads, terrestrial satellite communications terminals, and space systems integration. CGSTC, a collaborative venture between the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Jilin provincial government, has close ties to the People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese Communist Party. The company’s main product, the Jilin-1 remote sensing satellite system, is the largest commercial Chinese satellite constellation in orbit. With the unwavering support of the CCP and Chinese President Xi Jinping, CGSTC aims to operate a constellation of 300 satellites by the end of 2025. These satellites would boast a 10-minute revisit period (the time elapsed between a satellite’s observations of the same point on Earth) for any location on the planet.
CGSTC has already attracted the suspicion of international regulators. The United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the company in 2023 due to its ties to Russia’s Wagner private military company. The Russian paramilitary allegedly used CGSTC’s imagery intelligence services to support its combat operations in Ukraine. A shell company owned by Wagner’s then leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, reportedly cut a deal with a Chinese intermediary, Beijing’s Yunze Technology Company, to receive two CGSTC satellites.
This would not be the first time Iran and China have collaborated on space-based technologies. In October 2015, Beijing granted the Islamic Republic access to satellite positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) equipment from China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, providing a boost to the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps’ missile and drone arsenal. In 2021, Tehran received complete access to the BeiDou infrastructure for military purposes. The same year, Iran and China cemented a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership deal that committed both countries to spending $400 billion over 25 years. It is no coincidence that in a recent public address, officials from United States Space Command (SPACECOM) warned of rising cooperation in emerging technologies among Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China.
Put plainly, Chinese satellite technology can equip Iran with unprecedented intelligence capabilities for military use, including high-end sensor architecture that would boost Tehran’s drone and missile warfare capabilities. Accordingly, the US and its allies should closely monitor any satellite transactions between China and Iran.
2. The Houthis Continue to Wreak Havoc in the Red Sea
The Sounion, a Greek-flagged crude oil tanker, caught fire in the Red Sea on August 21 after the Iran-backed Houthi terror group targeted the vessel from Yemen. The incident signaled that the Houthis continue to pose a threat to maritime shipping. As the European Union’s Aspides naval mission reported, the Greek ship lingered afloat while engulfed in flames for over a week, threatening marine life in the region. Complicating matters, the tanker carries 150,000 tons of crude oil, and while the Houthis have allowed vessels to approach the damaged tanker, salvagers abandoned an initial effort to rescue the ship, claiming it was unsafe to proceed.
The unfolding disaster is the result of careful planning and execution by the Iran-backed terror group. On August 21, the Houthis used long-range weaponry to halt the Sounion’s engines and stall the vessel. This initial attack prompted the French Navy vessels in the area to evacuate the ship’s captain and crew. According to French Armed Forces spokesmen, the Houthis even endangered efforts to evacuate the ship. Then, on August 23, the militia released a video showing its operators planting explosives on the tanker to set it aflame.
On September 2, the Houthis used anti-ship ballistic missiles and unmanned surface vehicles to target two more crude oil platforms: the Saudi-flagged MV Amjad and the Panama-owned, Greek-operated MV Blue Lagoon I. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the Amjad was carrying two million barrels of oil at the time of the attacks, twice the volume aboard the Sounion.
In the absence of deterrent action at scale to attrit its drone and missile warfare capabilities, the Houthi militia will likely continue to threaten global maritime traffic and hinder freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most important sea lanes.
3. Iran Showcases Its Mohajer-10 Drone and Paveh Cruise Missile at a Russian Defense Exhibition
In mid-August, the Islamic Republic of Iran displayed two significant weapons systems at the Army-2024 defense industry exhibition in Moscow.
The Iranian pavilion at the event showcased the deepening military ties between Russia and Iran. Iran’s delegation at the expo was headlined by its ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, and General Ali Shadmani, the deputy coordinator of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which played a critical role in many of Tehran’s recent combat operations, including its April 13 attacks on Israel.
One weapons system that Iran used in those attacks, the Paveh cruise missile, made its international defense market debut at Army-2024. The Paveh, more difficult to intercept than other Iranian cruise missiles, will likely attract a significant amount of interest.
Iran also showcased its Mojaher-10 drone at the Moscow defense expo. The drone has a range of 1,100 miles, a flight endurance capacity of 24 hours, and an altitude ceiling of 24,000 feet. The robotic system is certified with Iran’s indigenous smart munitions and electronic warfare suites, and features a payload capacity of 660 pounds. Last year, Iran unveiled the unmanned aerial system in an image with Hebrew and Persian text in the background that read “prepare your bunkers.” The new drone highlights Iran’s growing military technology prowess as well as its burgeoning relationship with Russia.
4. Hezbollah and Israel Exchange Salvos amid Managed Escalation
On August 25, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged long-range salvos in the most intense combat the region has seen since the attacks of October 7, 2023. Hezbollah, in coordination with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, geared up to retaliate for Israel’s assassination of its senior commander, Fuad Shukr. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces sent combat aircraft to conduct preemptive strikes against Hezbollah launch sites in Lebanon.
Shortly after the Israeli action, Hezbollah unleashed hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel, most of which Israeli defense systems intercepted. Although Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, claimed that multiple munitions had struck their targets, he could not provide any visual proof of this battle damage assessment. These missing visuals speak volumes, as Hezbollah often shares evidence of its successful operations.
The exchange between Israel and Hezbollah was both more extensive in scale and deeper in territorial reach than previous clashes between the two parties. Nonetheless, both sides constrained their escalation within manageable limits, avoiding a free-fall into all-out war.