A race is currently underway in Tokyo to determine the next president of Japan’s largest political party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The winner is likely to become Japan’s next and 101st prime minister this October.
Hudson Institute is committed to strengthening the United States–Japan relationship and fostering a free and Open Indo-Pacific. The next prime minister of Japan will be an important figure in the future of the US-Japan alliance.
Therefore, Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair has reached out to each of the LDP presidential candidates asking if they would be willing to share their views on the future of Japan’s foreign policy. The views below should not be associated with Hudson Institute or any of its affiliates.
Index
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I. Japan’s Agenda for the New International Order | KONO Taro, Digital Minister of Japan
By Kono Taro, Digital Minister and Former Foreign Minister and Defense Minister, Japan
II. Japan’s New Security Era: The Future of Japan’s Foreign Policy
By Shigeru Ishiba, Member of Japan’s House of Representatives
III. Collaboratively Creating a “New Japan”: Awakening Japan’s Strengths and Shaping Its Goals
By Katsunobu Kato, Member, Japanese House of Representatives
Japan’s Agenda for the New International Order
By Kono Taro, Digital Minister and Former Foreign Minister and Defense Minister, Japan
The postwar liberal international order is under siege. States that do not share the universal values of freedom and democracy are attempting to change the status quo, and they are doing so by force. The global balance of power is shifting, quickly and dramatically. Russia has chosen the path of war to seek its national aims. Other powers are rising, such as China and the Global South. The United States, once the primary defender of the postwar order, can no longer do this alone, and Americans are reconsidering their role in the world.
Japan must step forward, with a renewed sense of purpose. As Japan stands at the crossroads of an increasingly complex and challenging global landscape, we must forge a path that safeguards our national interests and contributes to international peace and stability. My vision for Japan is clear: a nation that leads with courage, innovation, and unwavering commitment to our shared values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
I. Strengthening our Strategic Partnerships
Relieving the Burden on the United States
Since the end of World War II, the United States has shouldered a significant burden to maintain a free and liberal international order. During this period, America’s allies, including Japan, have been able to keep their defense budgets low and invest in economic development. This international order, until now, has contributed to the economic prosperity of most countries, including the United States. But today many Americans question their role in the world, and some doubt the benefits that accrue from global leadership. Isolationism, once again, has emerged as the preferred option for some in the United States.
America’s allies need to show appreciation for America's past efforts while equally sharing the burden moving forward. Should the US commitment to maintaining peace and stability in regions such as Asia, Europe, and the Middle East waver, countries that share common values must prepare for a future where the United States may play a smaller role in assuring the security and prosperity of others. In Asia, regional security is shifting from a hub-and-spoke system centered around the United States to a regional system with mini laterals, such as the QUAD and the Japan-US-ROK trilateral, where the United States is the first among equals.
Ensuring Shared Values Become Shared Burdens
US allies in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific must deepen their commitments to each other, and to a global order that respects human rights and the rule of law. Today, NATO allies are increasingly committing to help maintain peace and stability in Asia during a crisis, such as across the Taiwan Strait. Japan and other Asian partners must also be prepared to cooperate in upholding values like freedom, democracy and human rights outside our region. The Japanese people must actively support a global order organized around our shared values of freedom, democracy and human rights. This means accepting the political, economic, and security burdens with those nations that share our values.
National security, be it territorial, economic or cyber, can no longer be achieved by any one country alone. Nor can we depend solely on the United States to come to our rescue. Despite the deepening military cooperation between Japan and the United States in recent years, the debate within the US over its global commitments suggests uncertainty over Washington’s longstanding security partnerships. Even the US commitment to NATO is sometimes questioned. Can we, in Asia, be sure of the American commitment under any circumstances? Strengthening security cooperation with the United States is vital but it is also essential for Japan to strengthen its security cooperation with countries that share our values.
Japan must declare its willingness to bear an appropriate share of the burden to protect global peace, stability, and democratic values. If we need allies to protect peace in Asia in the years ahead, then we should reciprocate the obligation. If necessary, we should consider amending the constitutional to allow us to build reciprocity in our future partnerships.
Enhancing Deterrence
If it becomes clear that the United States' external commitments are decreasing, concerns about the efficacy of its extended deterrence will inevitably arise. Should a future regime in Washington become isolationist and begin to question the value of alliances, will America defend its allies even with a significant cost to its people? In such a scenario, what should Japan do? We are surrounded by nuclear powers – China, Russia and North Korea.
Some might argue that Japan should pursue its own nuclear armament. But would Japan, however, having experienced the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, choose this path? If Japan were to arm itself with nuclear weapons, other countries, starting with South Korea, might follow suit, claiming deterrent needs for self-defense. As more countries start deploying nuclear weapons, the risk of nuclear war, triggered by computer errors, human mistakes, misunderstandings, miscalculations, or even terrorist acts, would certainly increase. So, Japan should not choose this path of nuclear proliferation.
Beyond our nation’s tragic experience as the only people who have suffered from the use of nuclear weapons on our soil, initiating a nuclear weapons program would be impractical. It would halt the supply of nuclear fuel for power plants, leading to their shutdown. Additionally, where in Japan could nuclear tests be conducted? Japan should maintain its civilian nuclear technology through operating nuclear power plants, decommissioning the Fukushima plant, and developing small reactors for nuclear-powered, not nuclear-armed, submarines, while continuing to explore paths toward nuclear disarmament.
To deter against the use of nuclear weapons against us, Japan must build its own non-nuclear deterrence capability with long-range missiles and initiate a “our finger in the trigger” discussion in the Extended Deterrence Dialogue with the United States.
Yet there are many dimensions to deterrence. Japan should not aim to become a lion or tiger but rather an animal with long ears, sharp teeth, and claws. To have long ears, we need to work with the Five Eyes intelligence coalition and to eventually become the Sixth Eye. We already have close ties to the US, Canada, the UK, Australia and New Zealand. If Japan can join, not only will we benefit from access to intelligence, but it could also provide valuable perspective to the others. To achieve this, however, Japan must significantly upgrade its cybersecurity capability.
A new bill to establish an organization and capability for active cyber defense is currently being drafted. We also need to recruit and train human resources for the cyber domain.
The Japanese government should reorganize its intelligence community to consolidate capabilities that exist across the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office, the International Intelligence Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Defense Intelligence Headquarters of the Ministry of Defense, the Public Security Intelligence Agency, and the Police Public Security Department. To enhance our ability to accumulate, consolidate and analyze information, we must optimize the allocation of human and financial resources to establish an effective intelligence organization to match that of the Five Eyes nations.
II. Building a New, Inclusive International Order
In the face of rising authoritarianism, Japan will stand as a beacon of hope and leadership. We will push for reform of international institutions, ensuring that they reflect the realities of the 21st century and are equipped to address the challenges of our time. As we do so, Japan will take its rightful place as a leader in global governance, driving the creation of a new international order that is fair, just, and inclusive.
Expanding Relationships with the Global South
Japan needs to focus on building close relationships with the countries of the Global South.
When Putin unilaterally tried to change the status quo and invaded Ukraine, many countries of the Global South refused to join the sanctions against Russia. Many countries were voting against Russia at the United Nations, but fewer countries were willing to take meaningful action in response to Russian aggression. It is true that many of them depend on the food and energy supply from Russia, but a certain number of countries refused to support the sanctions imposed by the G-7. Some in the Global South have stated openly that the West, especially the United States, often applies a double standard and are unwilling to go along unconditionally.
Considering the growing economic power of the Global South and the development of their industries, Japan should shift from government sponsored, ODA-centric economic approach to partnering with these countries, and instead encourage private sector Japanese investment and business expansion. Supporting the expansion of Japanese SMEs and startups into regions like the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America should be a policy priority. Expanding export and investment insurance to promote overseas investments is necessary. Japan needs to enhance foreign investments, promote exports of agricultural products, anime and manga, and infrastructure, and advance an economic security strategy.
I strongly believe that Japan should increase its engagement in the Middle East, where US influence is waning. As Foreign Minister I did my best to promote Japan’s relations with the region. Even as we move away from fossil fuels over the long term, Japan's industry and economy remain reliant on oil and natural gas from the Middle East in the short term. Peace and stability in the Middle East are thus closely tied to the stable development of Japan's economy and society. Japan, historically having no negative legacy in the Middle East and being seen favorably by its people, should strengthen its political and security involvement in the region.
Japan can and should step up its efforts to maintain peace in the Middle East.
Navigating/Respecting Asia’s Relations with China
Managing relations with China, which could pose the greatest risk to Japan's future, is of utmost importance. Mutual understanding between the Japanese and Chinese people is crucial, and continuous and constructive engagement with China in various forms is necessary. Japan, at the same time, must persistently assert its stance on issues hindering bilateral relations, such as the actions of China's Coast Guard around the Senkaku Islands, the detention of Japanese citizens in China, and the frequent approaches of Chinese military aircraft into Japanese airspace. Japan must act to defend against Chinese military pressure when necessary.
Considering China's history of leveraging economic relations to impose political compromise, Japan needs to cautiously collaborate with the business community to avoid excessive supply chain dependence on China.
We are not in another Cold War. Countries in Asia do not want or need to choose sides. The Chinese economy is very extensive and intertwined with the global economy. China often provides more investment and economic assistance than the West, and does not talk about democracy or human rights. Many need Chinese investment in their economy and access to the Chinese market.
When I attended the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting in Bangkok in 2019, the Defense Ministers of the ASEAN member states kept telling me not to make them choose between the United States and China. But at the Gala Dinner in the evening, the Royal Thai Navy Band kept playing only American songs, from Louis Armstrong to Simon & Garfunkel. A tacit decision seemed to have been made. No country wants to be bullied or coerced, but leaders must feed their people.
Japan needs to understand the feelings of its neighbors and walk alongside these Asian countries, and, when it is possible, provide alternatives to China, be it market access, investment or technological cooperation.
Revising the United Nations Charter
The United Nations must be reformed to meet the needs of the 21st century. Its structure today still reflects the immediate post-World War II order, an order that no longer reflects the world we live in. Formerly defeated nations like Japan, Germany, and Italy have developed economically since the UN was formed. New economic powers like India, Brazil, China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and many more are emerging. The Cold War, which limited the promise of the United Nations is also over. As expectations of the nations of the Global South for the United Nations grow, the current UN organization, especially the Security Council, fails to meet its potential.
The vetoes by the Security Council's permanent members have led to decision-making paralysis even in the face of blatant aggression or severe human rights abuses. The United Nations today has not only failed to prevent or halt aggression and conflicts but it has also failed to take necessary measures to restore order after conflicts end. It must be able to help protect people from suffering in the wake of war.
Since only the permanent members of the Security Council can exercise veto power, it is impossible to reform the existing United Nations Charter. We could learn from how the original states of the United States adopted its Constitution to nullify its original Articles of Confederation, which was, just like the UN Charter, almost impossible to amend. Instead of trying to make some amendments to the existing Charter and being blocked by the permanent members, Japan should call for adopting a new UN Charter to create a new international order that meets today’s needs.
An updated Charter must abolish the veto power that has made the UN dysfunctional, prevent unilateral changes to the status quo by force and grant the new United Nations the authority and capability to protect and assist refugees and displaced persons.
Beyond the UN, Japan’s diplomatic power can be enhanced by its leadership in many international organizations. Recently, countries are increasingly nominating former prime ministers or ministers instead of diplomats or bureaucrats as candidates. Japan needs to create career paths for its politicians and other qualified candidates, especially women, to become leaders in international organizations.
To be chosen for a senior position in international organizations, often a master's or doctorate degree is required, as well as the ability to speak multiple UN official languages. This differs from the traditional career paths of Japanese individuals. Japan should focus on sending individuals with diverse backgrounds and education to international organizations.
Bringing the United States In
Finally, Japan’s longstanding partnership with the United States also suggests another important role for us to play as a new international order is forged.
As the US is no longer the dominant power in the world, it must recognize, as one of the respected international players, the need to adhere to international rules. Whenever we criticize authoritarian regimes for not honoring the international rules, we are often asked questions like "What about the United States?" or "Why aren’t you criticizing Washington?" This is, unfortunately, a compelling narrative. As we promote the rule-based international order, the United States must participate in international agreements and treaties not yet acceded to, including the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, International Court of Justice, International Criminal Court, etc. Establishing an international order based on agreed-upon international rules requires Washington to act accordingly. Washington may argue that the US does adhere to international norms and rules, and, even if it is not a signatory, like the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea, the US would not act differently than it already does if it signed. If so, why would the United States not sign it? The White House should stop using the Senate as an excuse. The argument of not signing does not always mean that the country does not adhere to international rules gives a good excuse to authoritarian regimes for not signing. Japan, because we are a friend of the United States, must persistently persuade the White House and Capitol Hill on this matter.
The United States must also understand the importance of participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is, unlike the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, not just a trade and economic agreement. TPP was meant to be a new rule making body among like-minded countries to promote common values in the Indo-Pacific region where China is increasingly exerting its power and trying to impose its rules. Japan must also persuade the United States to rejoin and participate actively in this initiative.
III. Modernizing Japan’s Defenses
While there is a national consensus to increase Japan's defense budget, the crucial issue is how to allocate that budget. We must improve the treatment of Self-Defense Forces personnel, review the size of the forces, and rebalance the composition of the ground, maritime, and air forces.
Ensuring the SDF’s Readiness
As Japan's population declines, it will be challenging to ensure a healthy SDF that is not too old and maintain a balance between officers and enlisted personnel. The SDF needs to secure new types of members to address rising threats in areas like cyber, space, and electromagnetic domains. Scholarship programs for officer candidates at universities should be established. Scholarships should also be provided for enlisted personnel to attend university after completing their military term, allowing them to return as officers after graduation. The Self Defense Forces must increase the number of female officers and soldiers and allow them to fulfill their full potential. Furthermore, efforts should be made to ensure enlisted personnel acquire qualifications and skills that are useful after retiring from the Self-Defense Forces.
The balance of ground, maritime, and air forces and the deployment of divisions must be boldly adjusted to shift from an era of preparing for Soviet tanks landing in Hokkaido to an era of preparing for threats from the air and sea to the southwest islands. We must rapidly enhance logistics, maritime transport capabilities, and handling capability of ports and airports in the Nansei islands.
We have learned much from the current war in Ukraine, and one of the most important lessons is the need for Japan to transition from heavy, large equipment to more mobile, technologically advanced weapon systems. The development of unmanned aerial vehicles and underwater drones, along with laser weapons, should be prioritized. Introducing unmanned combat aircraft will help prevent pilot fatigue as well as avoid their loss in battle. If our adversary is China, we should expect a high number of aerial and submarine encounters.
The SDF need to master new tactics, such as integrating unmanned assets with existing legacy systems and ensuring that all of these platforms are networked and communicate well.
Deploying a large number of underwater drones carrying torpedoes at the shallow exits of the East China Sea would deter the Chinese navy's entry into the Pacific. In conjunction, Japan should turn AUKUS into JAUKUS and consider the development and deployment of nuclear-powered submarines.
Japan's Defense Industry
Strengthening Japan's defense industry is also urgent. Most companies involved in Japan's defense industry are either very small, financially weak manufacturing businesses with little investment capacity, or divisions of large companies where defense-related sales and profits are a small portion of their overall business. Until now, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have often been the sole customer for Japan's defense equipment, resulting in limited quantities and high unit costs. Orders for consumables and spare parts have been far from stable. Consequently, companies have been unable to set up production lines, resulting in high costs and lengthy delivery times.
Japan is surrounded by seas and thus is vulnerable to an interruption in supplies. Unlike Ukraine, which has allies on its land borders, Japan would be forced to rely on maritime transport should it require resupply in a conflict, and this could slow down the supply of weapons and ammunition from abroad.
Domestic weapons production is thus indispensable. Japan has historically been cautious about defense exports, but it must now expand its sales of defense equipment abroad to build its domestic production capacity.
While technologies originally developed for military purposes, such as GPS and the Internet, were then adapted for civilian use, recently civilian technologies have been increasingly used for military purposes. The line between military and civilian applications of technology is now blurred. Japan needs to better develop dual-use technologies, and more flexibly address its defense needs.
Historically, there have been anachronistic practices, such as the Japan Science Council's refusal to cooperate in defense-related research and development. These practices must be urgently revised, and research and development budgets should be increased under the Ministry of Defense. Necessary military research must be pursued, and collaborative research with other countries should be actively promoted.
Conclusion: A New Vision for Japan’s Future
In this pivotal moment in world affairs, Japan must step forward with a renewed sense of purpose. We must strengthen our alliances, not only with the United States but with all nations that share our vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific and an inclusive and just global order. We must build resilient economic partnerships, ensuring that Japan remains a cornerstone of stability and prosperity in Asia and beyond.
Our security depends on our ability to adapt to new threats, and I am committed to modernizing our defense forces, embracing cutting-edge technologies, and building a robust deterrence that will keep our nation safe. At the same time, we must champion global nuclear disarmament, upholding Japan’s legacy as the only nation to have experienced the horrors of nuclear war.
Our future depends on building strong partnerships. We must look to our ally, the United States, but also seek other partners who share our values, and we must encourage all to share the burdens inherent in this common goal of maintaining peace and prosperity. We should be ready to adapt - to be able to offer reciprocity to others as we build a new international order.
The time for bold leadership is now. Together, we can shape a future where Japan not only thrives but also leads the world in building a more peaceful and prosperous global community.
Japan’s New Security Era: The Future of Japan’s Foreign Policy
By Shigeru Ishiba, Member of Japan’s House of Representatives
The following is an unofficial translation.
Establishing the Asian NATO
The security environment was transformed by the war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine began with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. This was the limit of the collective security regime of the UN. President Biden said, “Ukraine is not a member of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), so there are no obligation to defend it,” and “Ukraine is not in NATO. So, the US will not use military force.” That was the US logic.
Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, Ukraine has the right of all nations to “exercise the right of collective self-defense in the event of a request for assistance from an aggressor nation, pending a decision by the UN Security Council. Such a right should not have been denied to Ukraine because it is not a NATO member, but the US did not defend Ukraine under the Article.
Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow. Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense. Under these circumstances, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential to deter China by its Western allies.
To this end, Japan made a cabinet decision during the Abe administration to reinterpret the Constitution to allow for the exercise of the right of collective self-defense. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces, which had been allowed to use only minimal force in response to a direct attack on Japan, could now fight back if certain conditions were met, even in the event of the attack was on a country Japan has a close relationship with. Later, under the Kishida administration, the Cabinet approved the “Three Security Documents” and increased the defense budget to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) to ensure the ability to fight back.
Enactment of the National Security Legislation
However, these measures are merely stipulated in cabinet decisions or individual laws. In Japan, it is customary for the Diet to enact basic laws on important issues of national policy, clearly stating the direction of these laws before the people and proceed with individual policies. However, there is no basic law on security issues to date. The geopolitical crisis surrounding our country has risen to the point where war could break out at any moment. To deal with this crisis, the enactment of the “National Security Legislation” is urgently needed. The “Basic Law on National Security” is one of the pillars of my foreign and national security policy, which has been repeatedly discussed within the LDP, and will be followed by the LDP's long-cherished desire to revise the Constitution.
Currently, in the Indo-Pacific region, the QUAD (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India) has been raised to the level of a summit meeting, and AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) was created in September 2021. Furthermore, the security cooperation relationship between the US, Japan, and South Korea has deepened, and many frameworks, including regular summit meetings, joint training, and information sharing, have been institutionalized, bringing the bilateral alliances closer to a real “trilateral alliance.” The US and Japan have also reviewed the command and control structure of the Self-Defense Forces and US forces in Japan, put forward the joint development and production of defense equipment such as missiles, and coordinated on American extended deterrence.
Recently, Russia and North Korea have formed a military alliance, and nuclear technology is being transferred from Russia to North Korea. North Korea is strengthening its nuclear and missile capabilities, and if China's strategic nuclear weapons are added to these dynamics, the US extended deterrence in the region will no longer function. This is to be supplemented by an Asian version of NATO, which must ensure deterrence against the nuclear alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea. The Asian version of NATO must also specifically consider America’s sharing of nuclear weapons or the introduction of nuclear weapons into the region.
Currently, in addition to the US-Japan alliance, Japan has quasi-alliance relationships with Canada, Australia, the Philippines, India, France, and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the “2+2” meetings are taking place, and there is a horizontal development of alliances in terms of strategic partnerships. Japan and the US are deepening security cooperation with South Korea. If these alliances are upgraded, a hub-and-spoke system, with the Japan-US alliance at its core, will be established, and in the future, it will be possible to develop the alliance into an Asian version of NATO.
On the other hand, confidence-building measures (CBMs) to reduce potential “threats” will also be important. Japan was hit by the Noto Peninsula earthquake on New Year's Day, 2024. Soon, the possibility of a Nankai Trough earthquake, an earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area, and the eruption of Mt. Fuji will increase, and the establishment of a “Ministry of Disaster Management” similar to the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) in the US is an urgent priority. In Asia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and China are frequently hit by major earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis, and multinational forces are engaged in HADR (Humanitarian and Natural Disaster Response) activities to cope with such events. China has also been committed to HADR, having dispatched a naval hospital ship to RIMPAC 16. In cooperation with the United Nations Disaster Reduction and Response (UNDRR) and other organizations, HADR activities for disaster reduction in the Asia-Pacific region will be further strengthened in cooperation with an Asian version of NATO, and confidence-building measures will be developed.
Strengthening the Japan-US alliance as equal to the US-UK alliance
Japan has overcome security challenges one by one for nearly 80 years since the end of World War II. As a culmination of postwar politics, the Ishiba administration aims to contribute to regional security by strengthening the Japan-US alliance as an “equal nation” on par with the US-UK alliance. By building a framework to comprehensively promote security policy, Japan should secure its independence and peace, and proactively and positively contribute to a stable international environment.
The US-Japan Security Treaty is the backbone of Japan's postwar political history, a bilateral alliance that must evolve with the times. The Armitage-Nye Report once proposed that the US-UK alliance's “special relationship” be the model for the US-Japan alliance, and that the US and Japan become “equal partners. Now, this is possible, and we can defend the liberal order jointly, shoulder-to-shoulder with the US The conditions are ripe to revise the Japan-US Security Treaty into a treaty between “ordinary countries.”
The current Japan-US security treaty is structured so that the US is obligated to “defend” Japan, and Japan is obligated to “provide bases” to the US The time is ripe to change this “asymmetrical bilateral treaty.” It is possible that the Japan-US Security Treaty and Status of Forces Agreement could be revised to allow the Self-Defense Forces to be stationed in Guam to strengthen the deterrence capabilities of Japan and the US If this happens, a status agreement for the “SDF in Guam” could be made the same as that for US forces in Japan. Furthermore, expanding the scope of joint management of US bases in Japan would also reduce the burden on US forces in Japan.
It is my mission to raise the Japan-US alliance to the level of the US-UK alliance. To achieve this, Japan must have its own military strategy and become independent in terms of security until it is willing to share its own strategy and tactics on equal terms with the US As a conservative politician, Shigeru Ishiba will build a “security system that can protect its own nation by itself” and actively contribute to the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific nations based on the Japan-US alliance.
日本の外交政策の将来
アジア版NATOの創設
安全保障環境はウクライナ戦争で一変した。ウクライナ戦争は国連常任理事国のロシアによるウクライナに侵攻することで始まった。これは国連という集団的安全保障体制の限界である。バイデン大統領は「ウクライナはNATO(北大西洋条約機構)に加盟していないから防衛義務を負わない」「ウクライナはNATOに入っていない。だからアメリカは軍事力行使はしない」 それがアメリカの理屈であった。
国連憲章51条により、「被攻撃国から救援要請があった場合に国連安保理の決定がなされるまでの間、集団的自衛権を行使することができる」というのは、すべての国の権利である。それはウクライナがNATO加盟国ではないからと否定されるものでないのであるが、米国はそのような行動はとらなかった。
今のウクライナは明日のアジア。ロシアを中国、ウクライナを台湾に置き換えれば、アジアにNATOのような集団的自衛体制が存在しないため、相互防衛の義務がないため戦争が勃発しやすい状態にある。この状況で中国を西側同盟国が抑止するためにはアジア版NATOの創設が不可欠である。
そのためには日本は安部政権のときに憲法解釈の変更を行い集団的自衛権の行使を認める閣議決定をした。日本への直接的な攻撃に対して最小限の武力行使しか許されなかった自衛隊は、親密な他国が攻撃を受けた場合でも、一定の条件を満たせば反撃可能になったのである。その後、岸田政権下で「安保三文書」を閣議決定し、防衛予算を国内総生産（GDP）比２％へ増加させ反撃能力を確保した。
国家安全保障基本法の制定
しかし、これらの措置は閣議決定や個別の法律で定めているに過ぎない。日本では、国政の重要課題は、国会で基本法を制定し、その方向性を国民の前に明示し個々の政策を進めるのが通例だが、安全保障に関しては、基本法がないまま今日に至っている。我が国を取り巻く地政学的危機はいつ戦争が起こってもおかしくない状況にまで高まっている。その危機への対処のために「国家安全保障基本法」の制定が早急に不可欠となる。「国家安全保障基本法」は自民党内でも検討を重ねたものであり、私の外交・安全保障政策の柱の一つであり、続けて自民党の悲願である憲法改正を行う。
現在、インド太平洋地域において、QUAD（アメリカ、日本、オーストラリア、インド）は首脳会談レベルまで引き上げられ、２０２１年9月にはAUKUS（オーストラリア、イギリス、アメリカ）が創設された。さらに、また、日米韓の安保協力関係が深化し、首脳会談の定例化をはじめ、共同訓練や情報共有など多くの枠組みを制度化し、実質的な「３か国同盟」に近づいてきている。ここでは、自衛隊と在日米軍の指揮統制の見直しやミサイルなどの防衛装備品の共同開発・生産を打ち出し、米国の拡大抑止の調整もなされている。
最近では、ロシアと北朝鮮は軍事同盟を結び、ロシアから北朝鮮への核技術の移転が進んでいる。北朝鮮は核・ミサイル能力を強化し、これに中国の戦略核が加われば米国の当該地域への拡大抑止は機能しなくなっている。それを補うのはアジア版NATOであり、そこでは中国、ロシア、北朝鮮の核連合に対する抑止力を確保せねばならない。アジア版NATOにおいても米国の核シェアや核の持ち込みも具体的に検討せねばならない。
現在、日本は日米同盟の他、カナダ、オーストラリア、フィリピン、インド、フランス、イギリスと準同盟国関係にある。そこでは「２＋２」も開催されるようになり戦略的パートナーシップの面として同盟の水平的展開がみられる。韓国とも日米は安全保障協力を深化させている。これらの同盟関係を格上げすれば、日米同盟を中核としたハブ・スポークスが成立し、さらにはアジア版NATOにまで将来は発展させることが可能となる。
他方、潜在的「脅威」を低減させる信頼醸成措置（CBM）も重要となる。日本は、２０２４年の元旦は能登半島地震が起こった。近い将来、南海トラフ地震、首都直下地震、富士山噴火の可能性が高まり、米国のFEMA（連邦緊急事態管理庁）に準ずる「防災省」の設置が喫緊の課題となっている。アジアに目を転じてみるとフィリピン、台湾、中国は大きな地震、水害、津波にたびたび見舞われ、その対処として多国籍軍によるHADR（人道及び自然災害）活動がある。中国もHADRに力を入れており海軍の病院船を「リムパック１６」に派遣したこともある。国連防災機関（UNDRR）などと協力しながらアジア太平洋地域における防災に対するHADR活動をアジア版NATOと連携しながらさらに強化し、信頼醸成措置を展開させる。
米英同盟なみに日米同盟を強化する
日本は、戦後８０年近くにわたり安全保障上の課題をひとつひとつ乗り越えてきた。石破政権では 戦後政治の総決算として米英同盟なみの「対等な国」として日米同盟を強化し、地域の安全保障に貢献することを目指す。安全保障政策を総合的に推進する枠組みを築くことで、日本の独立と平和を確保し、安定した国際環境の実現に主体的かつ積極的に寄与すべきと考える。
日米安全保障条約は、日本の戦後政治史の骨格であり、二国間同盟であり時代とともに進化せねばならない。アーミテージ・ナイ・レポートはかつて米英同盟の「特別な関係」を同盟のモデルとして、日米は「対等なパートナー」となることを提案した。今、それが可能となり、米国と肩をならべて自由主義陣営の共同防衛ができる状況となり、日米安全保障条約を「普通の国」同士の条約に改定する条件は整った。
アメリカは日本「防衛」の義務を負い、日本はアメリカに「基地提供」の義務を負うのが現在の日米安全保障条約の仕組みとなっているが、この「非対称双務条約」を改める時は熟した。日米安全保障条約と地位協定の改定を行い自衛隊をグアムに駐留させ日米の抑止力強化を目指すことも考えられる。そうなれば、「在グアム自衛隊」の地位協定を在日米軍のものと同じものにすることも考えられる。さらに、在日米軍基地の共同管理の幅をひろげていくなどすれば在日米軍の負担軽減ともなろう。
米英同盟なみに日米同盟を引き上げることが私の使命である。そのためには日本は独自の軍事戦略を持ち、米国と対等に戦略と戦術を自らの意思で共有できるまで、安全保障面での独立が必要である。保守政治家である石破茂は、「自分の国家は自分で守れる安全保障体制」の構築を行い、日米同盟を基軸としてインド太平洋諸国の平和と安定に積極的に貢献する。
Collaboratively Creating a “New Japan”: Awakening Japan’s Strengths and Shaping Its Goals
By Katsunobu Kato, Member, Japanese House of Representatives
The following is an unofficial translation.
My goal is to establish a country that is trusted by the world and a society in which all people feel happy and can play an active role with peace of mind. To this end, I will realize the “Nippon Soukatsu” Plan, an eight-pillar plan to double the nation's income.
Since we returned to power, we have made every effort to create a country trusted by the world and a society where all people can feel secure, and to make the Japanese people feel happy to have been born in Japan. The Abe, Suga, and Kishida administrations have prioritized the economy, aiming to end deflation and other problems. As a result, the wage increase rate in this year's “Spring Struggle” exceeded 5%, capital investment reached 100 trillion yen for the first time in 30 years, and corporate earnings reached a record high.
Today, however, the people are voicing their concerns about the increasing severity of their living conditions. Issues that are shaking the very foundations of society, such as the declining number of births and the aging and depopulation are also becoming more evident. The international situation surrounding our country is becoming more severe than ever.
The important thing is to tackle this situation positively. In the past, Japanese have overcome many difficulties by understanding each other and working together to create a new era. The “Nippon Soukatsu” Plan is a plan to awaken Japan's strengths and give shape to the aspirations of every citizen by promoting this collaborative creation. I will make the most of my experience and do my utmost to implement the eight plans, which are centered on doubling the income of the people, to restore Japan's vitality.
First, income doubling. This is a top-priority issue and a policy that must be realized at all costs. It is important to sustain wage increases of 5% or more for several years and to spread the expectation throughout the nation that wage increases will continue. We will mobilize all necessary budgetary and taxation resources and establish a “National Income Doubling Council” with the participation of a wide range of people, including industry, academics, workers, youth, and women. We will boldly review the taxation system for raising wages and promoting investment so that it will be more advantageous for companies to raise wages and make investments rather than accumulate internal reserves.
We will raise the tax credit rate for wage increases from the current maximum of 30% to 50% and introduce a mechanism to return half of the cost of wage increases to companies. For public sector workers in childcare, education, medical care, nursing care, and welfare, we will also raise compensation and official prices to achieve wage increases of 5% or more. To improve the wages of construction workers, we will raise the unit labor cost of construction and introduce a system to make drug prices correspond to the rise in prices and labor costs. We will also establish a system to double financial income and promote wage increases for non-regular employees and minimum wage increases. We will also provide thorough support for small and medium-sized enterprises by expanding subsidies for business improvement.
Next is the development of new industries: we will enhance Japan's competitiveness by introducing AI and digital transformation (DX), and strengthen support for startups and new industries. While Japan has a strong industrial base, the introduction of AI and DX has been slow, but this should be seen as room for growth. We will use retained earnings to accelerate investment in new technologies. We will also support Japan's content industry. We will promote the creator economy and support activities by individuals to transmit their works to the world through social networking services.
Then, we want to focus on strengthening the growth potential of companies that support local communities and building a cooperative and creative society. To revitalize local regions and halt depopulation, the government will promote national land resilience and infrastructure development. We will establish grants to support the development of local human resources with 100 billion yen. In order to develop and retain local human resources and build an industrial base suited to the characteristics of the region, we will provide strong support for students at local universities and vocational schools, as well as for young people, including elementary, junior high, and high school students, to study abroad.
Additionally, we will achieve the “three zeros”: free school lunches, free medical care for children, and free childbirth expenses. Children are the nation's treasures, and we will create an environment where children can grow up healthy and receive the same support regardless of where they live and regardless of their parent’s financial situation. Through these efforts, we aim to create a society in which people can give birth and raise children anywhere in Japan without any burden.
Social security reform is also important. We will introduce an all-generation social security system that requires people to bear the burden according to their ability to pay, so that those who can afford it will shoulder more responsibility, reducing the burden on younger generations and ensuring the sustainability of the social security system.
For young people to find happiness, we will promote reforms in work styles, improve labor productivity, and build a society in which they can secure “jibun-jikan” (personal time). We support companies that invest in improving labor productivity and promote flexible work styles such as remote working and shorter hours. To promote the advancement of women, we will also work to correct the wage gap between men and women and increase the ratio of women on corporate boards, in senior positions in government agencies, and in the Diet. Furthermore, we will expand opportunities for senior citizens to play an active role.
In agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, we aim to increase productivity and protect the environment. We will introduce smart agriculture, promote cost reduction for large-scale farmers, and strengthen support for fertilizers and farm equipment for small and medium farmers. We will also work to develop high-value-added products to export agricultural products and increase self-sufficiency. At the same time, we will reduce food loss and promote the realization of a recycling-oriented society.
We will strengthen strategic diplomacy and security to protect Japan's peace and prosperity in increasingly severe international circumstances. We will promote constitutional reform, develop an emergency clause, that clearly states the Self-Defense Forces. We always say that we will protect the people. But can we say that we are protecting the people now? Isn't the return of all abductees to our country the proof of this? To ensure the immediate return of the abductees, we will work with the U.S. and other countries concerned to achieve a Japan-North Korea summit meeting as soon as possible.
Regarding disaster prevention, we will work on recovery from the Noto Peninsula earthquake and typhoon damage, and promote countermeasures against the Nankai Trough earthquake and an earthquake directly under the Tokyo metropolitan area. To this end, we will formulate economic measures early, compile an effective and bold supplementary budget, and aim for its early enactment. In addition, we will establish a “Crisis Management Agency” to strengthen the command post function and reinforce the disaster prevention system, including an evacuation center environment.
I will create a society in which all people can live happily by implementing this “Nippon Soukatsu” Plan, which will support the future of Japan.
協創「新しい日本」 | 日本の強みを呼び覚まし、一人ひとりの想いを形に。“ニッポン総活躍”プラン
私が目指すのは、世界から信頼される国・すべての人が幸せを感じ安心して活躍できる社会の実現です。そのため”国民の所得倍増”を柱とした8つのプラン、“ニッポン総活躍プラン”を実現します。
私たちが政権を奪還して以来、“世界から信頼される国・すべての人が安心できる社会”を目指し、日本人が日本に生まれたことを幸せと感じられるよう全力で取り組んできました。安倍・菅・岸田政権ではデフレ脱却等を目指して、経済最優先で政策を進めてきました。その結果、今年の春闘の賃上げ率も5％を超え、設備投資は30年ぶりに１００兆円を達成、企業収益も過去最高となっています。
しかし、現在、国民からは暮らしの厳しさが増しているとの声が上がっています。出生数の減少や、高齢化と過疎化の進展など、社会の根幹を揺るがす課題も顕在化しています。我が国をとりまく国際情勢はこれまでになく厳しさを増しています。
大事なことは、この状況に前向きに取り組んでいくことです。これまでも日本は、幾多の困難を、みんなでお互い理解し、力を合わせて乗り越え、新しい時代を創ってきました。この“協創”を進めることにより、日本の“強み”を呼び覚まし、国民一人ひとりの想いを形にする「ニッポン総活躍」プラン。私がこれまで歩んできた経験を活かし、全力で“国民の所得倍増”を柱とした8つのプランを実行し、活力ある日本を取り戻します。
まず『所得倍増』。最優先課題であり、何としても実現すべき政策です。数年にわたって5％以上の賃上げを持続させ、「賃上げが続く」という期待を国民全体に広めることが重要です。必要な予算や税制を総動員し、産業界、学者、労働者、若者、女性など幅広い層が参加する「国民所得倍増実現会議」を設立します。企業が内部留保を蓄積するよりも賃金を上げ、投資を行う方が有利になるよう、賃上げ税制や投資促進税制を大胆に見直します。賃上げ税制の税額控除率を現行の最大30％から50％に引き上げ、賃上げに要した費用の半分を企業に還元する仕組みを導入します。公的セクターで働く保育、教育、医療、介護、福祉の従事者に対しても、報酬や公定価格を引き上げ、5％以上の賃上げを実現します。建設労働者の賃金改善のため建設労務単価を引き上げ、薬価も物価や人件費の上昇に対応させる制度を導入します。金融所得の倍増に向けた制度も構築し、非正規雇用者の賃金引き上げや最低賃金のアップも推進します。中小企業についても業務改善助成金の拡充など徹底支援します。
次に、新しい産業の育成です。AIやDXの導入を通じて日本の競争力を高め、スタートアップや新産業への支援を強化していきます。日本には強固な産業基盤がある一方で、AIやDXの導入が遅れていますが、これは成長の余地と捉えるべきです。内部留保を活用し、新技術への投資を加速させます。また、日本のコンテンツ産業も支援します。クリエイターエコノミーを推進し、個人がSNSを通じて世界に発信する活動をサポートします。
次に「地域を支える企業の成長力強化と協創社会の構築」です。地方の活性化を図り、過疎化を食い止めるため、国土強靭化とインフラ整備を推進します。1,000億円規模の「地域人材育成支援交付金」を創設します。地域での人材育成、定着、そして地域の特性に合った産業基盤を築いていくため、地方大学や専門学校などにおいて学ぶ学生の大幅な負担軽減、小中高生も含めた若者の留学などを強力に支援します
次に「三つのゼロ」、給食費、こども医療費、出産費用の無償化を実現します。こどもは国の宝、どこに住んでいても、親の経済状況に関わらず、同じように支援が受けられ、こどもが健康に育つ環境を整備します。これにより、まずは全国どこでも負担なく出産・育児ができる社会を目指します。
社会保障改革も重要です。支払い能力に応じた負担を求める全世代型の社会保障制度を導入し、経済的に余裕のある人々がより多くの責任を担い、若い世代の負担を軽減し、社会保障制度の持続可能性を確保します。
若者が自らの幸せを見つけるためには、働き方改革を進め、労働生産性を向上させ、「ジブン時間」を確保できる社会を構築します。労働生産性向上に投資する企業を支援し、リモートや時短など柔軟な働き方の推進をサポートします。また、女性の活躍を推進するため、男女賃金格差の是正を図り、企業役員や官庁幹部、議員における女性の比率向上にも取り組みます。さらに、シニア世代の活躍機会を広げます。
農林水産業の分野では、生産性の向上と環境保護の両立を目指します。スマート農業を導入し、大規模農家はコスト削減を進め、中小農家には肥料や農機具への支援を強化します。農産物の輸出や自給率向上を目指し、高付加価値商品の開発にも取り組みます。また同時に、フードロスを削減し、循環型社会の実現を推進します。
国際情勢が厳しさを増す中で、日本の平和と繁栄を守るために戦略的な外交と安全保障を強化します。憲法改正を推進し、緊急事態条項の整備と自衛隊の明記を行います。私たちは、「国民を守る」と常に言っている。しかし今、本当に国民を守っていると言えるのか。すべての拉致被害者を我が国に戻すことこそが、その証ではないか。即時帰国の実現のため、米国や関係国と連携し、日朝首脳会談を早期に実現します。
防災について、能登半島地震や台風被害からの復興に取り組み、南海トラフ地震や首都直下型地震への対策を進めます。そのため、早期に経済対策を策定し、実効性のある大胆な補正予算を編成し、早期成立を目指します。また、司令塔機能を強化するため「危機管理庁」を設立し、避難所環境の整備を含む防災体制を強化します。
日本の未来を支える「ニッポン総活躍プラン」を実現し、すべての人が幸せに暮らせる社会を作り上げます。