As the Trump administration lays the groundwork to deport undocumented migrants on an unprecedented scale, it’s worth considering how this could unintentionally undermine U.S. interests in the Americas.
Deportations are a fundamental tool of U.S. immigration policy, and the United States removed 271,000 undocumented migrants in fiscal 2024, a 10-year high. Given the estimated 660,000 migrants with criminal records or pending charges, the Trump administration’s drive to increase deportations has merit. However, the scale of deportations under consideration brings substantial risks.
The stark reality is that migration is a symptom of a region destabilized by insecurity, and mass deportations could inadvertently strengthen criminal groups, undermining U.S. efforts to combat transnational crime, counter the influence of China and bring pressure to bear on authoritarian regimes in the region.
Migration has become an increasingly lucrative business for organized crime groups in Latin America, which prey on and profit from migrants through smuggling, extortion, sex trafficking and recruitment. The dramatic growth of the Tren de Aragua gang offers one of the clearest examples of how organized crime has expanded on the back of migration and how deportations might accelerate its growth again.
Reporting by InSight Crime has documented how Tren de Aragua exploited the mass migration of Venezuelans to Colombia, Peru and Chile that began in 2018 to transform itself from a local Venezuelan prison-based gang into a transnational criminal organization. Tren de Aragua developed a comprehensive predatory ecosystem: establishing control over border crossings, coordinating human smuggling operations and forcing migrants into criminal activities through abduction and coercion.
After establishing territorial control through migrant exploitation, Tren de Aragua diversified into other criminal enterprises, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of criminality and instability.
A similar dynamic has been at play in Mexico, which is expected to take in many deportees from third countries whose governments are unlikely to facilitate returns. Mexican cartels have established de facto control over the Guatemala-Mexico border, where trafficking humans has become more profitable than traditional drug and weapons smuggling. Cartels exploit migrants through extortion, kidnapping, and forced recruitment into criminal activities. Moreover, cartels will seek to recruit deportees — according to one estimate, the cartels collectively employ around 175,000 people in Mexico, and must recruit 350 to 370 new members per week to compensate for attrition due to arrests and deaths, according to a study by Austrian research center Complexity Science Hub.
The influx of large groups of deportees, many of them young and separated from families, would be a gift to the same cartels that are responsible for America’s fentanyl crisis.
Organized crime already poses one of the most significant challenges for Latin America. Criminal groups work to corrupt authorities and institutions at all levels of government and in some places have taken over many government functions. Organized crime has expanded far beyond traditional activities and has even sought to dominate legal economies.
The resulting insecurity is a leading driver of migration and is estimated to be reducing the region’s GDP by 3.5% annually, according to an analysis by the Inter-American Development Bank. But criminal groups could expand further if they are able to exploit the new opportunities brought by deportees. For instance, the State Department currently includes only six of Mexico’s 32 states in its most severe Level 4 “do not travel” designation due to widespread insecurity in those states. With an influx of deportees, cartels are likely to quickly follow deportee populations into new areas, creating new vectors for illicit activities and spreading similar levels of insecurity to other Mexican states.
The consequences could extend beyond security concerns. Mass deportations could strain relationships even with friendly governments in the region, undermining the united front needed to exert pressure on Venezuela’s Maduro regime and hindering the partnerships that could help contain Chinese influence. The arrival of millions of deportees risks accelerating the breakdown of order in receiving countries, potentially triggering new waves of outward migration and exacerbating instability and tension within the region.
The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to reshape U.S.-Latin American relations and address persistent regional challenges. While deportations must play a role in restoring border security, the administration should consider the unintended consequences that large-scale deportations could bring. A focus on the broader strategic goals of building a more free, secure and prosperous region could ultimately prove more effective at reducing irregular migration flows.