Takeaways
- Many Russian strategists see Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asia country and a border state of Russia, as a strategic buffer shielding the Russian Federation from external threats.
- Russia derives considerable leverage over Kazakhstan from the two countries’ shared history, geographic proximity, economic interdependence, and defense ties.
- The Chinese government has cultivated extensive diplomatic, economic, and energy ties with Kazakhstan; Beijing has approached security ties more cautiously, not wishing to antagonize Russia.
- Kazakhstan is a critical participant in Beijing’s trans-Eurasian transportation initiatives due to the country’s pivotal location between China and Europe.
- Trilateral security cooperation remains modest while Russian-Chinese-Kazakhstani trade is increasing due to expanding rail, pipeline, and dual-use transfer networks connecting all three countries.
Introduction and Executive Summary
Though the Republic of Kazakhstan is a formal military ally of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan’s government has maintained good security ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States, and other countries. Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy is also evident in the economic realm. Thanks to revenue from its sizeable oil and gas exports, Kazakhstan has the largest economy in Central Asia, with an aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $262 billion and the highest military spending among the five Central Asian countries.1 Though China has surpassed Russia as Kazakhstan’s leading economic partner, Russia will remain the country’s most important military ally for the foreseeable future. Sino-Russian interactions regarding Kazakhstan remain fundamentally harmonious. The three countries have launched several mutually advantageous trilateral initiatives in recent years.
This paper first evaluates Russia’s and China’s economic and security goals regarding Kazakhstan. It then assesses what unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral means Moscow and Beijing employ to achieve these objectives. The final section analyzes the cooperation, conflict, and balance of interests and influence between Russia and China concerning Kazakhstan.
Hudson Institute has produced this paper for a study on Russia-China Security Interactions in Central Asia: Bilateral and Multilateral Dimensions. This project analyzes the Sino-Russian relationship in Central Asia through three case studies. The first two papers assess Russia’s and China’s ties with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have the largest economies and populations in the region. The third paper evaluates Sino-Russian interactions with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). A final paper draws on these three texts and other data to assess Russia’s and China’s overall relationships in Central Asia, make projections about their future interactions under various scenarios, and evaluate the implications for the United States and its partners.