The foreign policy in-tray for the incoming Trump administration is filled to the brim. As Donald Trump nominates his Cabinet and prepares to reenter the Oval Office in January, major foreign policy issues demand attention. One region that must not be overlooked is Central Asia, an area that holds significant geopolitical and economic importance.
The five Central Asian republics — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — are located at the heart of the Eurasian landmass. Since gaining independence in 1991 after the Soviet Union’s collapse, they have gradually developed unique foreign policies and national identities. Strategically situated at a historic crossroads for trade and transit, Central Asia has played an essential role in Eurasian commerce for thousands of years. The region, especially near the Caspian Sea, is also rich in natural resources, offering substantial economic potential.
Despite its importance, US policymakers often overlook Central Asia. After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the US improved relations with some Central Asian states due to military operations in Afghanistan. However, as US interests in Afghanistan diminished, so did engagement with the broader region. No sitting US president has ever visited Central Asia and only a handful of Cabinet-level visits have taken place. This lack of high-level attention signals a broader disengagement, which could undermine US strategic interests.
Another issue is America’s approach to the region, which often prioritizes human rights and democratization over other critical matters, such as security, counterterrorism, energy and trade. While these values are essential, a balanced strategy is necessary to foster broader regional cooperation. The overemphasis on political reform has often alienated Central Asian governments, resulting in a lopsided relationship that fails to address mutual strategic interests effectively.
In today’s era of great power competition, crafting a coherent US strategy for Central Asia is vital. The last US strategy for the region, published in February 2020, emerged during Trump’s first term. Though initially well-regarded, it is now outdated. The 2020 strategy focused on Afghanistan’s role in regional dynamics, an approach less relevant now since the US withdrawal and the Taliban’s return to power. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine have reshaped geopolitical and economic landscapes, requiring a reassessment of US priorities in Central Asia.
There is currently little clarity on how the next Trump administration will approach the region. During Trump’s first term, key Cabinet members had considerable regional experience. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, previously ExxonMobil’s CEO, spent significant time in Central Asia due to the energy sector. Similarly, former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis had extensive regional knowledge from his tenure as chief of US Central Command. However, none of Trump’s recent appointments have demonstrated expertise in Central Asia, leaving the administration’s future approach uncertain.
However, a new strategy is anticipated next year and several key areas should be prioritized to strengthen US ties with the region.
First, the US must support Central Asian states in balancing their foreign policies. These nations are acutely aware of their geopolitical, economic and cultural ties with regional powers, such as Russia and China. The US should avoid framing engagement as a binary choice between the West and these powers, instead fostering relationships that acknowledge regional complexities, while promoting mutual interests. Encouraging multifaceted diplomacy will enable Central Asian countries to maintain autonomy, while engaging with all major global players.
Second, energy and transit cooperation should be central to US engagement. Ensuring Europe diversifies its energy resources is vital due to NATO obligations, while Central Asian countries seek to broaden their export markets and enhance connectivity. The US should explore opportunities for expanding oil and gas projects and developing new transit routes. Notably, supporting the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which would connect Turkmenistan’s vast natural gas reserves to European markets, should be a clear policy goal. Such initiatives would not only strengthen energy security for Europe, but also provide Central Asian countries with alternative trade routes, reducing their dependence on Russia and China.
Third, security cooperation must remain a priority. The US has long collaborated with Central Asian republics on counterterrorism, particularly in addressing the threat posed by regional extremists joining groups such as Daesh. For Central Asian governments, this issue is sensitive and best handled through discreet, trust-based engagement. With the US no longer present in Afghanistan, regional security concerns have intensified. Strengthening security partnerships with Central Asian countries is crucial for countering emerging threats and maintaining regional stability.
Finally, in this era of great power competition, the US must collaborate with allies to promote shared interests in Central Asia. Recognizing the growing role of the Organization of Turkic States is essential. This grouping serves as a platform for Turkic countries, including four of the five Central Asian republics, to enhance trade, energy and political cooperation. Turkiye, a key NATO member and driving force behind the Organization of Turkic States, plays a crucial role despite current tensions with the West. Engaging with Turkiye through the organization offers an avenue for the US to pursue common goals in Central Asia, while reinforcing ties with Ankara.
To support this new strategy, the Washington administration must prioritize showing up in the region. Trump should become the first US president to visit Central Asia, sending a strong signal of commitment. In the meantime, high-level visits by US officials would symbolize renewed engagement. Cabinet-level visits could strengthen diplomatic ties and lay the groundwork for deeper cooperation.
Central Asia remains geopolitically significant to the US, as recent developments in Afghanistan have highlighted. If the US aims to compete effectively in great power competition, it cannot afford to neglect this critical region. A pragmatic, balanced relationship rooted in mutual strategic and regional interests is essential. Trump now has a unique opportunity to reshape US engagement in Central Asia and secure a stronger American presence in this pivotal region.
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